Brinson’s NFL Week 5 picks, best bets: Revenge in the mind for Stefon Diggs, DJ Moore, Garrett Wilson

The Davante Adams saga is pretty wild. Here we have a borderline Hall of Fame wide receiver who asked to be traded out of Green Bay to allow him to join his college friend Derek Carr in Las Vegas. When Carr was let go, he realized he was in a bad spot and when his coach liked an Instagram post suggesting he would be traded or could be traded or might want to be traded or whatever, he Adams suddenly injured his hamstring. . And now apparently it’s actually being traded.

Now, for all intents and purposes, his hammy is actually hurt and teams trying to get him know it. But what adds to the madness is that Adams only wants to play for the Jets… or the Saints. He really, really loves Derek Carr! And Rodgers, of course.

I think Adams is a great player. No question about it. But I wonder if he necessarily puts the Jets or the Saints over the top in their quest for a Super Bowl.

The Jets went out and made Mike Williams their No. 2 pick next to Garrett Wilson this offseason. Allen Lazard was also there, because he is friends with Rodgers. Adams is better than both guys, but there is already a problem getting the ball to a star wide receiver (Wilson) in New York. Do we think Adams will space out so much at this stage of his career that the defense simply can’t focus on Wilson and he will explode? Is the purpose of an Adams trade to help Wilson? Or so Adams can single-handedly ignite the defense? The Jets currently have more fundamental issues up front. They can’t run the ball and Wilson hasn’t been a major factor.

You could say something similar for the saints. They already have Chris Olave! Adams would be a nice addition I think, but with their offensive line injuries there are other places they can improve their team first.

Adams is a worthy gamble at a low price for a team struggling on offense and looking to make a playoff splash, no question about that. But be careful what you expect from him in 2024. This doesn’t necessarily feel like Randy Moss for the Patriots.

Best bets

Garrett Wilson over 53.5 receiving yards

This isn’t a ‘Revenge Game’ per se, but it’s still a place for Wilson to flare up a bit before Adams might actually arrive. The Vikings are playing great football, but will blitz like crazy, which should lead to some one-on-one matchups. Wilson was a bit of a squeaky wheel early in the season and faced a lot of questions about his production, while Aaron Rodgers claimed the defense was focusing on Wilson. And then there’s this: Justin Jefferson was asked earlier this season about his matchup against the 49ers after they cut Wilson the week before and joked, “With all due respect, I’m not Garrett Wilson.” Jefferson lived up to expectations, but you know Wilson has been thinking about the line for a few weeks now.

Boekaniers versus Falcons above 43.5

I want to say that Tampa is simply the better team here and can slow down the Falcons, but the Bucs’ injuries on the backend give Kirk Cousins ​​the ability to move the ball in the air. Likewise, I’m not entirely sure the Falcons will slow down the Bucs, with Baker Mayfield playing great football and really putting the rock in Liam Cohen’s offense. In the division, primetime overs feel scary, but I’m not afraid to back the Bucs to pick up points and if they do, I think the Falcons will also be forced to bowl and see a bit of a shootout. this one on a Thursday evening.

Browns vs. Commanders above 43.5

It’s not shocking that this line is so low, considering the Browns aren’t exactly a high-powered offense these days. But these two teams can really secretly score each other in this match. Cleveland has passed at an insanely high level compared to the rest of the NFL, which is shocking considering how bad Deshaun Watson has been this year. And if there’s ever a play Watson needs to get right, it’s against the Commander’s defense. They’ve been trashed by pretty much everyone this year, with Washington giving up 7.9 yards per pass attempt and allowing the 25th most points per game this season (25.5). However, the Commanders rank third in scoring per game, and Jayden Daniels is really on a roll in his last two games. Cleveland hasn’t scored at all this season, but they aren’t exactly stopping people from scoring either, as they are only 17th in points allowed. I think it’s extremely reasonable for this game to score higher than Vegas suggests.

DJ Moore over 53.5 receiving yards

Revenge is on the mind every week, and how could Moore not do it against his old team, the Panthers. He certainly feels like he’s in a better situation with Chicago than he is with Carolina – I would think so, right? — but the Panthers traded him up and sent him away so they could call up Bryce Young, who is now on the bench. I suspect Moore would like to show the Panthers that they made a mistake and that they have a chance in what should be a fairly high-scoring game. I also like his receptions at 4.5 and don’t mind increasing his receiving yards… if you think the Panthers can keep up by scoring against the Bears defense. Because they won’t stop anyone, probably for the rest of the year. Carolina’s defense is currently ravaged by injuries and Moore should be able to get what he wants here as long as Shane Waldron doesn’t limit his movement within the Bears formation.

Bonus: The SportsLine Projection model has an A-grade pick in this matchup. Check it out here.

Stefon Diggs with 53.5 receiving yards

MORE REVENGE. Diggs has looked pretty sharp in this Texans offense, but he is far from the alpha. Nico Collins is the guy who catches passes from CJ Stroud and will continue to be that way. That means the Bills, who traded Diggs to the Texans this offseason, actually have to focus on another receiver, while a very vengeful receiver has to focus on relieving the team that has not-so-subtly shaded at him ever since has thrown. he left. Comments from several members of the offense made it clear that Buffalo likes the lineup more now than when it felt the need to force-feed Diggs. The Texans have shown a willingness to feed Diggs this season, getting him heavily involved in Week 1 (let the world know he’s not toast!) and when he gave up 12 goals against another old team of his in the Vikings. He’s not going to jailbreak anything big – and I’d also be interested in seeing his TD number at +150 at any time – but he should see at least six targets, catch almost all of them, and cruise over this number.

D’Andre Swift over 49.5 rushing yards

The Panthers have given the fanbase some relief over the past two weeks when it comes to the offense looking somewhat functional with Andy Dalton under center. Carolina has been able to move the ball quite well and has scored actual touchdowns. That’s exciting news. The defense’s performance is less exciting. The Panthers gave up six yards per play to the Bengals and 5.6 YPP to the Raiders in the dominant Week 3 win last week. Everyone is hurt for Carolina and they simply can’t stop opponents from moving the ball. Zach Moss paced the Carolina front with ease and I expect more of the same from Chicago on offense. Because D’Andre Swift was demoted to also-ran status before Week 4’s breakout performance, his prop numbers are still low, but he got 16 carries in Chicago’s win, looked good with the ball and now just needs to clear 50 rushing yards against a defense’s sieve. I don’t think Carolina will take a huge lead and force Caleb Williams to throw the ball. If that’s a problem, it’s fine to wait for a rushing/receiving yards support to pop open — Swift caught all seven of his targets en route to a 100-plus yard rushing day last week.